INSIGHT

Greenback bear market cycle likely even as Fed raises rates

September 2017

Lower USD Likely Over Long Term

Citi analysts see the USD staying flat over the next year but trending lower over the longer term.

  • The USD has tended to appreciate for cycles of 5-6 years and depreciate for around 10 years at a time. The last up cycle began in 2011 so the peak in USD Index over the past couple of years could be the start of a new USD bear market even as the Fed continues to raise rates. Citi analysts believe that a lower USD is likely over the longer term.
  • Citi analysts see further gains for the EUR, supported by large current account surplus, equity market inflows, a stronger than expected euro area recovery and the European Central Bank’s tighter policy stance. EUR strength is likely to persist at least until US fiscal stimulus materialises.

"Citi analysts see the USD staying flat over the next year but trending lower over the longer term."

DM & EM - Forecasts Path

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  • Inflation remains stubbornly low here in Australia. Despite the unwelcomed strength in the AUD, the high level of household debt and elevated asset prices are likely to keep the Reserve Bank of Australia from cutting rates.
  • The GBP is likely to be range bound. Upside can only come if a favourable Brexit deal takes shape. On the other hand, the pound’s cheap valuation may limit further downside.
  • Within Asian currencies, Citi analysts are most positive on the Malaysian Ringgit. Since December 2016, exporters have had to convert 75% of proceeds to ringgit, with the full impact felt from the quarter ending June as the grace period ended. This, together with the current account surplus is likely to be supportive of the MYR.

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